The Melo Backpedal

Now that the NBA has released the official list of early entry candidates for the 2008 NBA Draft, let’s take a look at which players are likely to stay, and which players are likely to return to school in an attempt the further their education and improve their draft stock for next year.

Chad Ford, our draft expert at ESPN.com wrote a similar piece, so we’ll give him the credit he deserves, but I’ve been working on this post for the past few weeks and wanted to waiting until the official list was released, so I’m not going to let that discourage us from releasing a similar piece. With the new rule the league has implemented, which allows underclassmen the opportunity to “test the waters” while NBA teams fit the bill, more underclassmen have declared to take advantage. While Ford openly questions why more underclassmen didn’t take advantage of this new opportunity, his colleague at ESPN.com, Dana O’Neil, writes that testing the waters allows NBA teams to dissect a college players game, and ultimately hurts the stock of a player who intends to return to school for another year. She uses the example of Jameer Nelson, who declared without an agent after his junior season at St. Joseph’s, decided to return to school, has a spectacular senior season, yet failed to dramatically improve his stock.

As Ford similarly did, let us give you some insight into which players are likely to return, and which of the big-name players may have made a mistake in forgoing their remaining college eligibility. I’m not in a position to judge a kid by declaring if he simply doesn’t want to be in school or simply needs the guaranteed money for financial reasons, but I’d like to spend a few minutes analyzing which players would perhaps benefit themselves in the long term by returning to school. For this piece we won’t look at every single underclassmen that declared, but we’ll dip into our Top 50 and look for players that still have the option of returning.

– Should Return to School –

DeAndre Jordan, Texas A&M, Freshman
As many have repeatedly stated, Jordan has the talent and raw ability to be a special player at the NBA level, but isn’t quite there mentally and hasn’t put together enough production for him to crack the top ten. He has a lot of doubters among scouts and GMs, and one good, not even great, season would easily make him a top five pick in 2009. Then again, most players would be happy to take the instant millions for such little production.

Donte Greene, Syracuse, Freshman
Here at Syracuse University, Greene has been getting the cold shoulder from fans who don’t think he did enough this year to justify leaving after only one year, and while I have not problem with him leaving, he’d greatly benefit from returning to school. With the return of their top nine players, his numbers might suffer, but at least he’d be able to fine tune his game and play for a team that has a chance to be very good, which will typically boost a players stock.

A.J. Abrams, Texas, Junior
Abrams played off the ball this year, but has said that he hopes to prove to NBA executives that he can run the point. The fact of the matter is that he’d be better off returning to school and proving that he can do that over the course of his senior season, rather than for a few workouts this spring. If he doesn’t want to be in school, then fine, but returning to school would likely dramatically help his draft stock and he’d be able to finish his degree requirements.

Mario Chalmers, Kansas, Junior
Following that game-winning shot in the national championship game, Chalmers stock probably couldn’t be much higher, but next season’s draft is likely to be less loaded at the point guard position, so returning for his senior season makes a lot of sense. If he was a lock for the first round, I wouldn’t advise him to return, but he isn’t a lock at this point.

Wayne Ellington and Danny Green, North Carolina, Sophomore and Junior
With Tyler Hansbrough and the majority of the cast returning to Chapel Hill next season, Ellington and Green should seriously consider returning as well. They’ll have a chance to play for a top tier program, getting national exposure, while polishing up their game for the 2009 Draft, which as we’ve stated before, is likely to have less depth than the 2008 Draft.

Jeremy Pargo, Gonzaga, Junior
Pargo was conference Player of the year in the WCC this season, but still has several areas that need to be addressed before he gets first round attention. If he returns, Gonzaga is likely to have a stellar squad once again, and he he’ll have a chance to be one of the top players in college basketball, which would in turn help his draft stock.

Richard Hendrix, Alabama, Junior
After a sensational junior season, it isn’t any wonder why Hendrix declared. With the return of point guard Ronald Steele and the addition of a solid recruiting class, the Crimson Tide could be one of the top teams in the SEC next season and Hendrix will be more likely to receive a first round guarantee.

J.J. Hickson, NC State, Freshman
While Hickson is a likely first round selection, returning for his sophomore season will allow him to be better prepared to contribute as an NBA rookie and he’ll have a chance to crack the Lottery. If he doesn’t want to be in school then he should stay in the draft, but being a student athlete for one more season could seriously pay dividends.

** Anybody else not in our Top 50, or getting first round feedback from the NBA underclassmen advisory committee, should also return to school.

– Smart for Deciding to Return –

Nick Calathes, Florida, Freshman
Here’s a kid who, surprisingly, was never really tempted by the draft process. He has a more NBA-ready game than the majority of the guys listed above, but has a chance to be a Lottery pick in 2009 with a solid sophomore season, especially considering Florida will be a very good team next season.

Darren Collison, UCLA, Junior
I was glad to see Collison decided to return to school for his senior season because he’s simply not ready, despite getting some first round attention. I was a bit puzzled that Chad Ford had him firmly in the first round all season long, then in a recent chat, said he should return to school. Maybe that’s because he can be a Lottery pick next season, but I believe it is because he really needs to become more of a distributor in order to improve his stock.

Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina, Junior
While most will argue that Hansbrough’s stock is higher than ever, and thus he should’ve decided to cash in, he has the rare chance to be named among the top players in NCAA history and his stock isn’t likely to go anywhere. In fact, the thought of next season’s draft being weaker than this year’s should actually work in his favor.

James Harden, Arizona State, Freshman
Despite recent speculation that Harden would’ve been a Lottery pick had he declared this season, he was wise to return for another year in Tempe. The opinion here is that he wasn’t going to be a Lottery pick, but he’ll have a chance to be a Top five selection with a good sophomore season.

Stephen Curry, Davidson, Sophomore
While nobody’s stock experienced a bigger boost in the NCAA tournament that Curry, there’s still a lot of doubters that he’ll be a contributor on the NBA level and another season, this time running the point, should work in his favor going into the 2009 Draft. Now if he struggles, that could cause his stock to slip, but I wouldn’t bet against him.

* Send questions or comments about tis post to ajohn135@gmail.com