The Melo Backpedal

Having a little trouble filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket this year? Struggling to decide which upsets to predict while attempting to earn bragging rights or cold hard cash in your office pool? Put your worries to rest as Mike, our resident college basketball guru, guides you through Thursday and Friday’s first round match-ups.

I tend to dwell on my success in the NCAA Tournament last year (when I correctly picked seven of the Elite Eight, all Final Four teams, and the championship game teams and winner), but I’ll be the first to admit that this year’s Tournament is as wide open as I can ever remember — and thus, much harder to predict. Having said that, we’ll have some fun as I counter Mike’s picks with my own. We’ll release our second round picks over the weekend, when we know which teams are still playing.

— EAST REGION —

(1) North Carolina vs (16) Mount St. Mary’s or Coppin State —

Mike’s Pick: Doesn’t matter who the Tar Heels play in this game they’ll run them right out of Raleigh!

Andrew’s Pick: North Carolina, by 30+

 

(8) Indiana vs (9) Arkansas –

Mike’s Pick: Indiana has gone downhill since Kelvin Sampson, a.k.a. “Cheater,” left. The Hoosiers aren’t the same team. Arkansas has the momentum going into the tourney by making it to the SEC Finals this past week. The Razorbacks and their fans will be chanting “Woo, Pig … Suey!” after this game.

Andrew’s Pick: As much as I’d love to hear the “Suey” chants, I just think D.J White on the block with Eric Gordon making it rain will be too much for Arkansas to handle.
 
(5) Notre Dame vs (12) George Mason –

Mike’s Pick: This could be a classic 5/12 upset! The matchup to look for in this game is Will Thomas against Luke Harangody and Folarin Campbell against Kyle McAlarney. One key guy to also watch out for is Dre Smith. If he starts making his three point shots it could be an interesting night. Having said that, Luke Harangody will not have 4 points and 1 rebound, like he did last year against Winthrop, so the Irish will win.

Andrew’s Pick: Notre Dame will get tested early, but in the end, they simply have too much size to contend with and will want to avenge last year’s first round upset. 

(4) Washington State vs (13) Winthrop –

Mike’s Pick: The Cougars aren’t the most athletic team, but expect them to play a great defensive game. Winthrop will not be moving on this year like they did last year by surprising Notre Dame.

Andrew’s Pick: WSU may be a bit overrated, but Winthrop isn’t the same team they were last year and will get smothered to death by the Cougars defense.
 
(6) Oklahoma vs (11) St. Joseph’s –

Mike’s Pick: St. Joe’s is not a good rebounding team. Look for Blake Griffin and Longar Longar to have big games inside. The only way that St. Joe’s has a chance is if they can make their three point shots. In 8 games this year they have made 10 or more three pointers. I like Sooners in a close game.

Andrew’s Pick: Though the Sooners may be the more talented team, St. Joe’s, as mentioned above, can really shoot the three and if they get going, they can beat just about anybody. I like them to upset the Sooners in this one.
 
(3) Louisville vs (14) Boise State –

Mike’s Pick: Someone forgot to tell Boise State that this is not football. There will be no upset! Louisville is one of the best teams on defense. Expect Padgett and Company to win easily.

Andrew’s Pick: I agree. This is one of the easiest games to predict. Louisville wins by 25+.
 
(7) Butler vs (10) South Alabama –

Mike Pick: A.J Graves and Mike Green of Butler are one of the best guard tandems that you may don’t know. Well, get to know them, because the Bulldogs are going to make some noise in the tourney.

Andrew’s Pick: South Alabama, in my opinion, doesn’t even belong here, and Butler will prove it by mopping the floor with them.
 
(2) Tennessee vs (15) American –

Mike’s Pick: Rocky Top in a land slide!

Andrew’s Pick: Former Virginia coach Jeff Jones has done a fantastic job at AU, but they’re playing perhaps one of the top five teams in the country and should be happy just to be here.

— WEST REGION —

(1) UCLA vs (16) Mississippi Valley State –

Mike’s Pick: I don’t see UCLA having a problem, even if Jerry Rice came out of retirement to help his alma mater, it wouldn’t be enough. UCLA wins BIG!

Andrew’s Pick: UCLA is one of my Final Four picks, so I’m not turning on them unless they’re entire starting lineup suddenly gets suspended for this one. Yes, they’ll win BIG!

 
(8) Brigham Young vs (9) Texas A&M –

Mike’s Pick: You’re going to see two good big men go at it with Trent Plaisted of BYU and DeAndre Jordan of A&M. Look for Plaisted to teach the freshman a few things. BYU pulled the upset against Louisville in the beginning of the year and also gave North Carolina a scare. I like the Cougars from the Mountain West to win.

Andrew’s Pick: Though Jordan may be the hotter NBA Prospect, Plaisted will outsmart, outwork, and outplay the youngster being compared to Dwight Howard. Welcome to the NCAA Tournament young gun. Unless, A&M’s Joseph Jones has a huge game, BYU should take this one.
 
(5) Drake vs (12) Western Kentucky –

Mike’s Pick: What can you say about The Drake? All I can say is they are legit! I don’t like two mid majors playing each other in the first round. The Hilltoppers have Courtney Lee who can flat out play and has scored over 2,000 points in his career, but Drake has 4 of of their five starters averaging double digits in scoring. Drake will survive and advance in a close one.

Andrew’s Pick: Though WKU’s Courtney Lee is spectacular, Drake is a scary matchup for anybody because they can shoot the ball so well, so I like them in this one. “Got to love The Drake!”

 
(4) Connecticut vs (13) San Diego –

Mike’s Pick: Hasheem Thabeet needs to be a factor if UCONN wants to make a run in the tournament. Look for his Thabeet’s size to cause problems for the Toreros. He averages 4.6 blocks a game. UCONN to the next round.

Andrew’s Pick: San Diego is a hot team right now, but I’d take the over on Thabeet getting 5 blocks in this one. The size and athleticism of the Huskies will be tough for the Toreros to match.

 
(6) Purdue vs (11) Baylor –

Mike’s Pick: Baylor is another feel good story this year. Coach Scott Drew has done an amazing job! The Golden Bears have key wins against Notre Dame, Kansas State, and Texas A&M this year. The Boilermakers lost in the Big Ten quarterfinals and I believe they will lose in an upset to Baylor this Thursday.

Andrew’s Pick: I like both of these teams very much, but I like Purdue in this one. Robbie Hummel, one hotshot freshman some of you may not have heard of, will keep this team playing hard. I think Baylor, making the tournament for the first time in like 20 years, will just be happy to be there. Tough one.
 
(3) Xavier vs (14) Georgia –

Mike’s Pick: Congratulations to the Bulldogs! From having the worst record in the SEC during the regular season, but made a wonderful run in the SEC tourney by beating Mississippi in the first round, Kentucky and Miss State in one day, then beating Arkansas for the championship. I don’t know how much the Bulldogs have left in the tank. Look for Xavier to win against a tired Georgia team.

Andrew’s Pick: Couldn’t have said it better myself. Just look at what happened to Syracuse in the NCAA’s two years ago when they won 4 games in 4 days to capture the Big East crown. Xavier wins big because of the fatigue of the Bulldogs.
 
(7) West Virginia vs (10) Arizona –

Mike’s Pick: West Virginia is playing the wrong Arizona team, they should be playing Arizona State. Oh well! The Mountaineers are playing close to home in Washington D.C. Look for Joe Alexander to have a big game. His game is sick! He is probably one of the hottest players in college basketball right now.

Andrew’s Pick: Most of you know I love Huggy Bear, The Mountaineers, and Joe Alexander (161 points in his last six games). Bayless and Budinger may be Lottery Pick’s this summer, but the Mountaineers are the better team right now. Alexander will be held in check because Zona’s defense will focus on him, so look for Alex Ruoff to have a big game and lead the Mountaineers to victory.
 
(2) Duke vs (15) Belmont –

Mike’s Pick: Duke has a bulls eye with every team they play against. Look for Belmont to give a good run in the first ten minutes, but then Duke will control the game and win handily.

Andrew’s Pick: Belmont? Can the NCAA selection committee give the Blue Devils and easier opening round matchup? Probably not.
 
— SOUTH REGION —

(1) Memphis vs (16) Texas Arlington –

Mike’s Pick: No contest here. Tigers win by 30 or more against Texas Arlington.

Andrew’s Pick: UT Arlington doesn’t score much and will get caught in a up-and-down game that will be too fast for their liking. Memphis by 20+.

 
(8) Mississippi State vs (9) Oregon –

Mike’s Pick: What a disappointing year for the Ducks! They should be a lot better. They have four starters from last years team that made the regional finals. Mississippi State has Psycho T’s brother Ben, who is averaging 10.4 points a game. If this game gets into a running match I like Oregon, because Miss. State has 4 players averaging at least 30 minutes a game and could get fatigued.

Andrew’s Pick: Oregon disappointed this season, but I like them over the Bulldogs here. Too much veteran leadership to pick against them.
 
(5) Michigan State vs (12) Temple –

Mike’s Pick: This game is going to be low scoring and very close, if this game goes into overtime, the Owls are 4-0 this year.  Drew Neitzel will be the key, if the Owls can hold him under 12 points they may have a shot. I expect Neitzel to have 20 or more points and leading his team to victory.

Andrew’s Pick: I really want to go with Temple because I like their athletic guards, but MSU has the veteran leadership and depth, so they’re the pick here.
 
(4) Pittsburgh vs (13) Oral Roberts –

Mike’s Pick: This is the third straight year Oral Roberts has made the NCAAs, but they’re playing a Pittsburgh team that is hot. Jamie Dixon’s squad has had to deal with a lot of injuries this year, but they’re peaking at the right time.

Andrew’s Pick: This would be a major upset if Oral Roberts won because Pitt is playing better than 99% of the field at the moment. No chance they get upset here.
 
(6)Marquette vs (11) Kentucky –

Mike’s Pick: This game is going to come down to guard play. Marquette’s Dominic James, Jerel McNeal, and Wesley Matthews against Kentucky’s Joe Crawford, Derek Jasper, and Ramel Bradley. If that offsets look for Lazar Hayward to be the deciding factor. Marquette wins.

Andrew’s Pick: I think Marquette is the better team and the “safe” pick to win, but my gut is telling me Kentucky’s experience on the perimeter will shine through. My pick is the Cats in a close one.

 
(3) Stanford vs (14) Cornell –

Mike’s Pick: The Lopez twins will be too much for The Big Red of Cornell. Stanford will wear them down by their defense and rebounding. Stanford rolls.

Andrew’s Pick: Easy one here. The size of Stanford is too much.
 
(7) Miami vs (10) St. Mary’s –

Mike’s Pick: The Gaels have had key wins against Drake, Gonzaga, and Oregon. The Hurricanes haven’t won an NCAA tournament game since 2000, don’t expect that to change. The Gaels win in an upset!

Andrew’s Pick: I agree. Miami is overrated and it will show when St Mary’s pulls what probably isn’t that much of an upset in my opinion.
 
(2) Texas vs (15) Austin Peay –

Mike’s Pick: The backcourt of D.J Augustin and A.J. Abrams will lead the Longhorns and send the Governors packing.

Andrew’s Pick: This is like the Celtics vs the Knicks. It’ll be a beat-down for the Horns.

— MIDWEST REGION —

(1) Kansas vs (16) Portland State –

Mike’s Pick: “Rock Chalk, Jaywalk”. Enough said!

Andrew’s Pick: Kansas will roll by 40+. Watch.
 
(8) UNLV vs (9) Kent State –

Mike’s Pick: This should be a great game. UNLV can score in bunches. Kent State has won 20 or more games for 10th straight year. This is a toss up! I will go with Lon Kruger and UNLV.

Andrew’s Pick: I want to go with UNLV because I was impressed when I saw them win the MWC tournament last weekend, but I think they’ll be exhausted. My pick is Kent State.
 
(5) Clemson vs (12) Villanova –

Mike’s Pick: I have Clemson as my dark horse team to go deep in the tourney, but they need to watch out for Villanova. The Tigers need to keep Scottie Reynolds in check, if they do and the Tigers are not hungover from the loss to North Carolina the Tigers will roll onto the second round.

Andrew’s Pick: I like Clemson in this one, but because of the guard play of ‘Nova, it’s a toss up and could go either way.
 
(4) Vanderbilt vs (13) Siena –

Mike’s Pick: Senior Shan Foster and freshman A.J Ogilvy are a great 1-2 punch, but shouldn’t take Siena lightly. The Saints beat Stanford in the regular season. Vandy will be Dandy in the first round.

Andrew’s Pick: Vandy is one of my favorite teams to watch and they’ll roll in this one.
 
(6) USC vs (11) Kansas State –

Mike’s Pick: The sexiest first round matchup by far. Two hotshot freshmen — OJ Mayo going against Michael Beasley. I’ll bet you CBS is drooling about this game. USC gets most of their scoring from freshmen or sophomores. Kansas State just gets it from Michael Beasley and Billy Walker. Mayo and Walker were high school teammates. Some of the sophomores from USC played in the Sweet 16 last year and gave North Carolina all they could handle. I believe the experience of Taj Gibson, Daniel Hackett and Dwight Lewis will help them get past Kansas State. USC moving on.

Andrew’s Pick: Hold the Mayo. USC is the better team, but I think Kansas State can beat anybody if Beasley takes over. He will, and the Wildcats will win.

 
(3) Wisconsin vs (14) Cal State Fullerton –

Mike’s Pick: Bo Ryan’s teams aren’t the most exciting teams to watch, but they get it done year in and year out. The Badgers play great defense by allowing only 54.3 points a game. I see the Badgers having no problem against Cal State Fullerton.

Andrew’s Pick: I have the Badgers going far, so yes, they’ll win here.
 
(7) Gonzaga vs (10) Davidson –

Mike’s Pick: I hate seeing mid-major programs playing in the first round especially these two teams. I believe both teams can make it to the Sweet 16, but only one will advanced to even have that opportunity. Gonzaga has to travel from Spokane to Raleigh while the game for Davidson is a home game in their own state. Both teams play tough schedules every year and I respect that. To give Zags hope they need big games from Josh Heytvelt and Austin Daye, if not Gonzaga will be in big trouble. This game could be a classic, but Davidson will move on and play Georgetown.

Andrew’s pick: Well said; Curry is unstoppable, so Davidson advances.

 
(2) Georgetown vs (15) UMBC –

Mike’s Pick: Two local teams are going against each other, even if I don’t know where UMBC is located. The Hoyas and the Princeton offense will have a field day against the Retrievers.

Andrew’s Pick: I believe they’re located in Baltimore, but it won’t matter when Georgetown holds them to around 40 points.

*** Check back for second round games this weekend…