Staying or Going
When a friend of mine recently asked if player movement around the league would be quiet this summer as a result of all the trade deadline deals, I began doing some research on the subject. Turns out that this summer could be just as busy, if not busier, than the past month as been in regards to player movement. Let’s take a few minutes to break down what could happen.
ESPN’s Chad Ford has already broke down what could transpire in terms of free agency and the draft (and you can of course check out our latest draft material), but I’d like to focus on some potential trade possibilities for this summer. We’ve probably all read about trades that almost went down, but somehow failed because of whatever reason. Some of those deals could easily be revisited and a slew of potential blockbuster deals could be orchestrated, according to what we’ve heard.
There are eight big time players who have the “Early Termination Option” on their contracts this summer, but there are even fewer teams who have the cap space to sign any of these players without somehow unloading a contract or two off their current payroll. Right now it appears that the Philadelphia 76ers and Memphis Grizzlies will be the only two teams with significant cap room to lure a top tier free agent this summer, unless another team randomly decides not to resign one of their own free agents this summer. Keep an eye on this as it could be a trading vehicle for teams looking to get value in return for a player who either may not be in their current teams future plans or for a player who may want out of his current situation.
Though the Sixers will have roughly $20 million to spend on free agents this summer, they’re expected to spend a good chunk of that on retaining their own free agents, Andre Iguodala and Louis Williams. Now that it appears the Sixers will be in the playoffs this Spring, one would assume they’d want to keep their best player, Iguodala. However, last summer Iguodala turned down the Sixers long term offer of $57 million over six years, so he was either trying to force his way out of Philly or trying to increase his value to get a bigger offer this summer (Interestingly enough, the Sonics could offer him a deal starting around $8 million, as long as they let Robert Swift walk. Wouldn’t Seattle have a sick young core if that happened?) Since there are few teams who have to room to offer Iguodala a better deal, and you’d have to assume his agent knew that would be the case, it could actually mean that he wants out. Otherwise, you’d have to assume his agent just isn’t doing his job. I mean seriously, what agent in their right mind would tell his client to turn down an offer like that knowing full well that the market would be bad the following summer? Agents make their living by knowing what the market is going to be for their clients, so my only logical answer is that he may want out of Philly. Otherwise, why walk away from $57 million? That’s like playing Russian Roulette with a kids career.
If that’s really the case, look for several teams to be interested in sign-and-trade possibilities. A few that might makes sense involve Milwaukee Bucks guard Michael Redd, who you’d have to think is on the trading block with his lack of success in Milwaukee, or the Los Angeles Clippers moving Elton Brand in a sign-and-trade, if he’s in fact hoping to move this summer as a free agent. Corey Maggette, another Clipper forward who could opt out, is also a possibility. As it stands, however, the Sixers will likely be bidding against themselves for their best player, but you never know, it could get very interesting.
Speaking of Michael Redd, Milwaukee GM Larry Harris is officially on the hot seat, and he may need to move Redd to shake things up a bit. If he doesn’t make a big move this summer, most observers seems to believe he could be on his way out — perhaps making room for a newcomer to take his place. The real question is what direction are they headed? Rebuilding makes a lot of sense because they still have a few really solid young pieces in place, but they’d have to rid themselves of several bloated contracts. They may have to take back less in value to unload Redd, so they’re really in a tough position. If they were able to get Iguodala for Redd, and build around him, Yi Jianlian, Mo Williams, and Andrew Bogut, they might be halfway decent next year.
Depending on how things work out for the Cavs this Spring, Milwaukee might also want to consider moving Redd to Cleveland. They could use his shooting ability of the Ohio native and he’s sure to be an instant fan favorite. Moving Eric Snow, Joe Smith, and Sasha Pavlovic for Redd and Charlie Villanueva helps get the Bucks in a good cap situation for next summer, and because of Wally Szczerbiak’s soon-to-be expiring contract, the Cavs will still have plenty of money to resign LeBron to a large extension if he decides to opt out in 2010.
Another trading partner for the Sixers could be the Chicago Bulls. As Chad Ford has pointed out, of all the players who turned down lucrative contract extensions last summer, Ben Gordon’s decision made the least amount of sense. The Chicago guard turned down a five-year, $50 million deal that most of us believed was above market value for an undersized, one-dimensional two-guard. It appears that he’ll have a hard time recouping that same amount of money from the Bulls, especially now that they’ve brought in Larry Hughes and his bloated salary. Miami might be a likely destination because they’ll have some cap room with Ricky Davis and Jason Williams coming off the books this summer. Don’t expect the Bulls to just let him walk, however. For Gordon to get the best possible deal, he’ll likely have to agree to a sign-and-trade, unless he agrees to take the Bulls one-year tender, because there’s simply only a few ways he’ll be able to get decent money strictly as a free agent.
It will also be interesting to see where Sacramento Kings forward Ron Artest ends up. The defensive specialist was quietly hoping to be moved to a contender before the trade deadline, but his agent has said that he vows to honor his contract with the Kings, who’ve stood by him through thick and thin over the last couple of years. Having said that, it’s hard to believe the Kings won’t move him to help with their rebuilding efforts. Trading him to Denver won’t yield any results because they don’t have anything Sacramento wants, but I can see a veteran team like San Antonio coming up with a decent offer.
Indiana Pacer forward Jermaine O’Neal, who’ll turn 30 in October, could also be on the move this summer. Also look for Mike Dunleavy to become trade bait now that his stock is higher than ever and he’s fighting for minutes with Danny Granger at small forward. While it’s hard to see O’Neal opting out of the last year of a contract that’ll pay him $20 million next season — especially after such an unproductive year — there are still plenty of playoff teams who could use his size and experience. None of those teams will have the cap space to sign him outright, so it would be very surprising if he wasn’t at least shopped by the Pacers, who would love to move his contract and continue their rebuilding this summer as apposed to next. One team that should be interested is the Phoenix Suns. The Shaq experiment is blowing up in their face and unless they make it to at least the Western Conference Finals, it would have to be deemed a failure. Insert Jermaine into that equation next year, without having to give up much in return, and they could certainly be back on track. They could use the trade exception they received when they foolishly dealt Kurt Thomas to Seattle and they could also toss in a couple first round picks, which would save them the trouble of selling them for cash later.
The Knicks nearly moved Zach Randolph to Milwaukee prior to the trade deadline, and they’ll likely try something similar this summer now that they’ve figured out that he and Eddy Curry can’t co-exist in the frontcourt together. Curry was discussed in a potential trade with Miami, and could also be on the block this summer. If current Nets consultant Kiki Vandeweghe were to be named Knick General manager, as rumored, then you’d have to believe he’d blow things up, much like he did seven years ago in Denver. However, when you discuss the Knicks these days, that scenario just seems to make too much sense for them. I’d expect Stephon Marbury to be dealt this summer as well. He’s been given a gag order (as he’s not allowed to speak to the media) by the Knicks and has even been banned from attending games at MSG, so its hard to believe he’ll be there next year. Believe it or not, a few teams may actually be willing to make a trade for him because of his expiring contract. That’s about the most valuable part or Marbury these days. Some team can take on Marbury’s one year, or simply buy him out, and get the Knicks to take a couple horrible long-term contracts off their hands. If were Isiah, though, I wouldn’t expect getting too much in return. Which, if you think of Isiah’s past experience, is probably the reason why they’ll never trade him. Holding out for Kobe, KG, or LeBron won’t produce any results, but Knick fans know that all too well.
One deal that would make sense, as Chad Ford suggests, is sending Marbury to New Jersey in exchange for Vince Carter. The Knicks get the exciting, overpaid player they’ve always coveted, and the Nets get major cap flexibility for the future. Maybe they could parlay that cap space into luring LeBron to come to a franchise that will be playing in Brooklyn in the next few years.
Either way, moving carter has to be priority numero uno for the Nets this summer. We’ve obviously beat this subject to death, so I won’t dwell on it, but the Nets made a major mistake when they resigned Carter last summer. He’s still a very good player who brings a lot to the table, but he’s now 31 years old and doesn’t appear to be apart of a long-term rebuilding project in New Jersey. I would imagine the Nets would be happy to get cap flexibility for him at this point.
You’d also have to believe that Mike Miller and Kyle Lowry of the Grizzlies are still in play. These two guys were likely the next two to be dealt before the trade deadline, and I’m confident the clock simply expired on a few would-be deals, so expect them to change addresses as well. The Grizzlies clearly want to rebuild so Miller looks like he’s out of the picture, even if they don’t get equal value in return. They also have way too many young point guards, when you consider Lowry, Mike Conley and Javaris Crittenton, so look for them to get sixty cents on the dollar for him too. If these guys are a package deal, and the Grizzlies are looking for cap relief, it would make sense to send them to Golden State for Al Harrington. The Warriors would welcome a young run-n-gun point guard to groom behind Baron Davis and Miller’s shooting would fit in perfectly with Nellie’s style. Harrington comes off the books for the Grizzlies next summer and he’d be replaced in the Golden State lineup with emerging young forward Brandan Wright, who’s already starting to steal some of Harrington’s minutes.
I fully expect there to be some sort of shakeup in Portland, where energetic GM Kevin Pritchard has everybody except Brandon Roy, Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge available. They also have several point guards, none of which has established himself as the clear cut starter. Not that this would ever happen, but if Gilbert Arenas, who can opt out of his contract this summer, actually wants to leave the Wizards, moving him to Portland in exchange for Steve Blake, Jarrett Jack, Channing Frye, Travis Outlaw, and their 2008 first round pick (likely to be in the Lottery) might work. Blake was drafted by the Wizards and has a big following there, plus Jack is from the DC area. The Wizards would probably never let go of Arenas, but if he really wanted to play for a legit contender, that would certainly have to make Portland one and Washington would get a nice consolation prize.
The Nuggets would love to unload either Kenyon Martin or Nene, but I don’t see any takers there. I remember when the Nuggets signed K-Mart in the summer of 2003, and most observers thought that was a better signing than the Jazz inking Carlos Boozer. That’s hilarious to think about now, especially considering the fact that Martin is almost five years older than Boozer.
Speaking of the Jazz, it will be interesting to see if they do anything, trade wise. You’d have to believe they love their current team, but they really need to get better defensively. If Kirilenko still wants out, which no longer seems to be the case, then they might be able to find a taker. Mehmet Okur, who comes with a much more reasonable contract might be the better possibility, however. He’s a huge part of their success, as evidenced by the way they played without him this season, but they really could use a defensive shotblocker in the middle. They also need to free up a bit of cap space to resign Deron Williams, whose up for an extension. I wonder if any of that will prompt the Jazz to make a move.
There are several other deals that could go down, these just seem to be the most likely. Once we get closer to the draft, and rumors start swirling, we’ll have a much better idea of which players will stay and which ones will go.
