The Melo Backpedal

In the wake of recent news that Greg Oden will likely miss the upcoming season after having microfracture surgery on his right knee, it’s time to take a look at what this means for the Trailblazers, the league, and Mr. Oden himself.

We just released our NBA Off-season Grades — obviously prematurely — and mentioned that Oden was the right choice for the Blazers with the number one overall pick. That assertion could be viewed much differently with this injury news, but rather than trying to justify what we wrote previously or simply change our opinion — like some journalists do — we’re maintaining that Oden will still be the player everybody anticipated he would be. It’ll just take an extra year for him to get there, that’s all.

It’s true that Kevin Durant would have been a fantastic pick, and is now the hands-down favorite to win the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award, but there’s little doubt Oden will ultimately return to form and will very likely live up to the lofty expectations we all had for him before hearing this news.

After speaking with Colatina, we came to the conclusion that with most big men in the NBA, knee injuries aren’t nearly as worrisome as foot injuries. Therefore, the belief here is that with Oden’s well-known work ethic and motivation, he’ll recover similar to Amare Stoudemire and shouldn’t have any lasting effects that hamper his career.

It’s hard to remember such a talented player missing his entire rookie season with an injury, but I can’t help but think of the ways this will ultimately help his development and his future success. Instead of learning on-the-job as a rook, he’ll be observing from the bench, getting stronger with the help of the team trainers, and growing and maturing as a professional off the court.

Some young players who come into the league with such high expectations get overwhelmed by having to perform on the court and handle all the off-court responsibilities as well. Oden will be able to take it one step at a time, which is a great benefit. Long-term, this could be an opportunity in disguise for Oden.

The Trailblazers get to benefit from this as well. Without Oden and Zach Randolph — who they traded away to New York for a bag of peanuts — Portland will have to endure another rebuilding year. They have plenty of talented youngsters, so the last thing they need is another top five pick in the draft, but picking up an asset is the way to properly rebuild.

There will be a plethora of talent in the 2008 Draft and even if they decide they don’t want to go with another youngster, they could simply trade the pick for a number of players or future picks that would help the team down the road. Portland GM Steve Patterson proved this summer that he knows what to do with assets when he has them.

Blazers fans should naturally be a tad bit bummed, but they should also look forward to next year with great anticipation when they could add another piece to a nearly complete puzzle. If Oden recovers properly and the Blazers pick up another top five pick in next years draft, it would be like putting an under 25 all-star team on the floor together — which would be really fun to watch.

However, make no mistake; this news is a huge blow to the league. Given all of the negative press the league has had to endure this summer, losing a young player like Oden for the entire season is just another haymaker landed to the head of the NBA. He and Durant headlined this summers NBA Draft and were supposed to be the top rookie combination to enter the league together since Lebron, Carmelo, D-Wade in 2003.

They were also pitted against each other on national television late on Christmas Day, which now looks like a nationally televised matchup of two of the worst teams in the Western Conference. As we mentioned when we ripped the league for it’s poorly planned schedule for the upcoming season, the league is making a huge mistake by revolving its nationally televised game schedule around its “stars” and not its top teams. This is a perfect example of why that strategy will ultimately fail. Now Portland plays on national television twelve times — without Oden in the lineup — which is more times than two-thirds of the league. I, for one, won’t be tuning in to any of those games this season. How about you?

In the end, Oden, the Blazers, and the league should be just fine — as long as this isn’t a career threatening injury. The Blazers and the league have enough young talent to suggest they’ll move on even without Oden, and I think we’ve seen enough of this kid to suggest he’ll overcome this and many other obstacles during the course of his NBA career.